Year-End Hiring Plans Edge Up in the U.S. According to the Quarter 4 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Globally, hiring plans are mostly positive with employers expecting to finish the year on a more confident note than they did in 2013, as outlooks strengthen in 29 countries and territories year-over-year and soften in just 12. Forecasts, however, are softer when compared with Q3. Fourth-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in
U.S. Results Summary
Of the more than 18,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 19 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2014 hiring plans, while anticipated staff reductions are consistent with past fourth quarter results at 7 percent. Seventy-two percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +15%.
Slight Upswing in Hiring Levels Anticipated in U.S. By 18,000 Surveyed Employers
Quarter |
Increase Staff Levels |
Decrease Staff Levels |
Maintain Staff Levels |
Don't Know |
Net Employment Outlook (deseasonalized) |
Q4 2014 (current) |
19% |
7% |
72% |
2% |
15% |
Q3 2014 (previous quarter) |
22% |
4% |
71% |
3% |
14% |
Q4 2013 (one year ago) |
18% |
8% |
72% |
2% |
13% |
"During 2014, we have seen incremental growth across industries and regions as employers rebuild their internal teams and implement new operational strategies," said
U.S. Hiring Plans by Regions, Industry Sectors and States/Metro Areas
The fourth quarter research shows that U.S. employers anticipate hiring intentions to stay relatively stable quarter-over-quarter across all regions, and increase slightly compared to one year ago at this time. Three regions report the strongest Outlooks in more than six years:
- Employers in the Midwest report a Net Employment Outlook of +15%, which is the strongest since Quarter 4 2007 when the Outlook was +18%.
- Employers in the South report a Net Employment Outlook of +15%, which is the strongest since Quarter 2 2008 when the Outlook was +17%.
- Employers in the West report a Net Employment Outlook of +16%, which is the strongest since Quarter 1 2008 when the Outlook was +22%.
Employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey, with Leisure & Hospitality, Mining and Wholesale & Retail Trade employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions.
Among the 50 states, employers in
Among employers in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, the strongest job prospects are expected in:
-
Dallas -
Houston -
McAllen, Texas -
Phoenix -
San Jose, Calif.
The weakest Outlooks are projected in:
-
Akron, Ohio -
Little Rock, Ark. -
Philadelphia -
Spokane, Wash. -
Providence, R.I. -
Hartford, Conn. -
Albany, N.Y.
Global Results Summary
- More than 65,000 employers were interviewed to measure anticipated global labor market activity. Employers in 36 of 42 countries and territories surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the October-December time frame, compared to 37 of 42 in Q3 and 38 of 42 in Q2.
-
There are noteworthy developments in individual country and territory reports. The Greek forecast continues the climb that started two years ago. While employers in
Brazil andChina expect to boost payrolls, the fourth quarter survey suggests they will do so at a pace far below historic levels. Labor market momentum has stalled inIreland andSpain as outlooks in both countries slip once again into negative territory. -
Employers in 18 of 24 countries in the
Europe ,Middle East &Africa (EMEA) region forecast payroll gains, while employers in five countries expect staffing levels to decline. Turkish employers report the region's most optimistic hiring plan, while the weakest forecast is reported inSpain . -
Forecasts are stronger in three
Asia Pacific countries and territories in comparison to Q3, weaker in another three and are unchanged in two. The strongest hiring plans ? as well as the most optimistic across the globe ? are reported by employers inIndia , while the weakestAsia Pacific forecast is reported in mainlandChina . -
Employers across the 10 countries surveyed in the
Americas continue to report positive hiring intentions, but hiring activity is expected to be marginally weaker in comparisons to both Q3 and one year ago. Employers inColombia report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring plans, while job seekers inCosta Rica can expect the softest jobs growth.
"Although it is difficult to detect a pronounced overriding trend in the global labor market, employers are generally telling us they intend to hire more robustly at the end of 2014 than they did at the end of 2013," added Prising. "Hiring patterns remain mixed across
Complete results for the
The Quarter 1 2015
*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.
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