Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Reveals Third Consecutive Quarter of Sustained Hiring Ahead for U.S. Employers
MILWAUKEE, Sep 14, 2004 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The hiring pace for fourth quarter is expected to remain consistent with the past two quarters, but much improved from a year ago across the United States, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were surveyed, 28% plan to add staff in the fourth quarter, while 7% expect to reduce their payrolls, creating a Net Employment Outlook of 21%. Sixty percent of employers surveyed anticipate no change in staff levels for the coming quarter, and 5% are unsure of their hiring plans. The seasonally adjusted employment outlook for the final months of 2004 is the same as it was in both the second and third quarters. The job forecast has remained at a respectable level for three quarters, and it is decidedly more positive than a year ago when the outlook was half as strong.
"U.S. employers have predicted solid employment activity for the past six months, and they expect to sustain that level of hiring through the end of the year," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc. "Hiring plans remain the most upbeat they have been since the hiring boom of the late 1990s that continued into the new millennium. The survey's history reveals only two other stretches when employers planned to hire at a healthier pace than in the current survey: the late 1970s and the middle months of 1984."
Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors surveyed plan to keep hiring activity levels relatively consistent with the July to September period. These sectors include Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services, Public Administration and Mining. Durable Goods Manufacturers are slightly more confident about hiring than they were in the third quarter, while job prospects in Construction and Education are expected to soften slightly.
"Optimism among Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers has been mounting throughout 2004. The Manufacturing sectors, along with Wholesale/Retail Trade, are the bright spots in the fourth quarter survey. These employers are more confident about hiring than those in the other sectors," said Joerres.
Employers in each of the U.S. regions, including the Midwest, Northeast, West and South, report employment plans consistent with the previous quarter. Job seekers in all four regions can expect to have a much easier time with their search than a year ago. The employment outlook is most positive in the West and weakest in the Northeast, marking the third consecutive quarter that Northeastern hiring levels have lagged other regions.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted in a total of 19 countries and territories, including interviews with more than 35,000 employers. In addition to those in the United States, job seekers across Mexico, Hong Kong and New Zealand are likely to see a continuation of solid employment prospects. Employers in 17 of 19 countries and territories say they expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, with 14 countries reporting stronger hiring levels compared to one year ago. Employers in
Germany, Mexico and Hong Kong reported their most optimistic hiring intentions since Manpower began surveying in these countries.
"The employment picture is notably improved from a year ago in most countries," said Joerres. "However, seasonal hiring patterns are prominent in a number of countries where hiring is expected to soften moving from third quarter into the end of the year, when hiring typically slows."
This trend is most apparent in Europe, where employers in six of 11 countries expect the year to close with less robust hiring activity, compared to the previous quarter. However, employers in eight of 11 countries anticipated hiring to be stronger compared to one year ago. Employers in the UK and Ireland were the most optimistic in Europe, while Italian employers reported their first-ever negative Net Employment Outlook, which means on balance more employers expect to reduce staff than to add them. The only other European country to report a negative outlook was Germany, where employers are considerably less pessimistic than they were at the beginning of the year.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on December 14, 2004 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2005.
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope longevity and area of focus. The survey has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with more than 35,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 19 countries and territories: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries have been added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004. For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at http://www.manpower.com and enter the Press Room.
About Manpower Inc.
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle. The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and organizational consulting services. Manpower's worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world's largest multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower's work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the company operates under the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan and Brook Street. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at http://www.manpower.com .
SOURCE Manpower Inc.
Margaret Gerstenkorn of Manpower Inc., +1-414-906-6336, or mgersten@na.manpower.com
http://www.manpower.com
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